India Syndicate 2.0

I am currently reading Liar’s Poker by Michael Lewis.

It is mostly a memoir of his time at Salomon Brothers which is now a part of the Citi Group (what is Citi Group a part of now ?)

But, more than that, it is a description of the poker played at Wall Street. Poker has fascinated me even though I have never played it myself. Heck, I have never even watched a game of poker being played (nor do I have any intention of doing so) ! The main skill in poker is to hold your feelings and let the world know nothing. Do you have the right cards, do you not ? That is how the term “poker-faced” was coined. The game is all about bluffing and double-bluffing.

To a huge extent, Wall Street transactions are a version of poker (Incidentally, Michael Lewis talks about a version of poker named “Liar’s Poker” that is played with dollar bills instead of cards. This actually heightens the bluff-double-bluff situation).

When the common-man buys a stock, he is simply betting that the bond or stock will give good returns. However, every time a trader buys or sells a stock or bond, he is bluffing that he knows something that lay-men like us don’t. Maybe he does, maybe he doesn’t. If the bluff pays off, the price of that stock goes up, we all end up buying it and the trader makes off with a neat profit.

However, if the book dealt simply with this, it wouldn’t be such an intriguing read. The author goes on to explore more layers at which this game works. An employee at a firm plays poker with the firm itself. Maybe he is good and deserves a raise. Maybe he has a better job offer elsewhere, maybe he doesn’t. If his bluff pays off, he gets the raise. 

The book describes a sequence where the new joinees are part of a training program. The goal for each trainee is to get into the most profitable department of the firm after the training period ends. To achieve this, he has two options: he can fawn the manager of his favoured department and hope for the manager to bail him out. This wouldn’t always work since managers have nothing to gain by bailing out trainees. 

The other option is to create the illusion of being in demand. The starting point would be to befriend the manager of the least favoured department and get him to start talking about the trainee. Once the trainee gets the approval node from one manager, he would spread the word around. Eventually, the said trainee succeeds in creating the illusion of being in demand and the target department manager is ready to take him in. Again, consider if the in-demand manager refuses to believe the assertion that this trainee is in demand: the trainee would be stuck with the least favoured department.

The fun continues as the author starts to unravel the many levels at which this bluff is played out.

A more pervasive example of this game being played out in public life is the India-Pakistan situation. Both are holding their cards close. Pakistan wants us to believe they are doing something about the “non-state actors”. Maybe they are, maybe they are not. India wants us to believe they have the military option. Maybe they have, maybe they don’t.

Whose bluff will eventually win out ?

The question of the day for the Indian government from Pakistan and the US is: can you prove links between Pakistan and the Mumbai terror attack.

There have been noises to the effect that the Indian government indeed can.

What I woud like to ask the Pakistanis and Americans is this: the links between Pakistan and the bombing of the Indian embassy in Afghanistan were proved; were the perpertrators brought to justice ?

Were the perpertrators of Kargil brought to justice ?

Were those who tortured and killed Lt Saurabh Kalia and his team brought to justice ?

Were the perpertrators of the 93 blasts (Dawood Ibrahim and Tiger Memon) brought to justice ?

How many times are we supposed to prove these links ? Are Indian lives so cheap that the loss of a  few hundred here and a thousand there doesn’t really concern anyone ? Would we be asking for so much evidence if a few hundred American lives were lost ?

Why are we producing this evidence again and again ? Do we really expect the Americans and Pakistanis to do anything about it ?

Experts are talking about the pressure the Pakistani government is in today. They say that if India pushes Pakistan into a corner, they might not be able to co-operate. They say Zardari cannot do anything against the wishes of the army and the ISI. They say that the Americans will not pressurize Pakistan due to the fear that it may take the pressure off the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

My question is: what about the pressure on the Indian government.? What about the safety of the Indian people ? Aren’t these concerns atleast as valid as those of the Pakistanis and the Americans ?

In what bizzare world could you justify Pakistan’s inaction on these flimsy grounds ?

“…that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain–that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom–and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.” Abraham Lincoln

In a democracy that talks of a government by the people, it is difficult to reconcile the fact that there is something called the “political class”. When we had kings and Viceroys running this country, there was an excuse for a political class seperate from those who were ruled. In a democracy, this political class needs to be an integral part of the group that is being ruled. That is a necessary condition for the democracy to succeed. For what good is a democracy where power is shared by a common and exclusive group of people ?

In India, this exclusive group is our “political class”. It is sheer co-incidence that they break themselves into different parties. It is meer dust in our eyes.

If you look at any other “class” in our society, you will find that change is a common denominator. Old is refreshed and replaced by the new. Power shifts from the strong to the feeble till the feeble become strong and then the cycle continues.

We see more cricketers coming from small towns where they once came fom the metros. We see small-town youths dominate the IT landscape where it was once the privilege of the big cities. We see more school-dropouts run the race to financial riches and corporate success.

Democracy has transformed India — slowly, but eventually — into a Land of Opportunity. In every sphere. Except the one where it was expected to bring the biggest transformation - government.

You would struggle to find 80-90 year -olds in any field with as much density as they are in the “political class”. You would struggle to find as little rotation of power and success in any field as in the political arena. There must be something to it.

That something is called power.

Power tends to corrupt; absolute power corrupts absolutely

John Acton

It is not that the particular set of people in power today are evil. In some cases, it is not even that they are necessarily evil.

The injustices done by idealists, patriots, saints and crusaders can be far greater than those done by the worst tyrants.

Iravati Karve in Yuganta

It is not people;it is the power that matters. If it were these bunch of politicians who were the root cause, our task would have been much easier. Countless revolutions have adorned our history where the common man has overthrown the powerful ruler. But this is different.

The solution lies not just in weeding out the current set of individuals in power. The solution also depends on decentralization of power. We have to ask ourselves if the government needs to have the power to decide how we run our lives. Does it need the power to decide how we run our educational institutions. Does it need the power to decide how we run our businesses and how we invest our money.

To every such question where our answer is yes, we need to understand that we are taking a risk. A risk that when someone takes the position in government, he/she may take that power away from us for good. Already some of our basic freedoms as individuals are curtailed. We have the right to information, but it is partial and cumbersome. Wee have the right to freedom, but it lays down so many pre-conditions that the “freedom” is hijacked. Every major post in the Civil Services is a political appointment. The civil services are no longer accountable to the people; they are accountable only to the political class.

Politics is an industry that employs many people. It employs the powerful who go on to become Prime Ministers and Chief Ministers. It employs those a little lower in the order who go on to become cabinet ministers. It also employs those followers who stay with their “leaders” in the hope of receiving favours. Yes, politics is an industry. But it is an industry where the entry barrier is so high it is almost unsurmountable for those outside the industry.

Gone are the days when a common man could dream of becoming a minister or MP/MLA. You need political clout and favours to get there. And those who get there do their best to stay there which means that they raise the entry barrier further. This, in itself, is not such a shocking thing. Players in any industry would strive to raise the entry barrier to stave off competition. The industry of politics is unique in the sense that only in this industry do the players have absolute privileges to raise the barrier as high as they like. It is like the players making up the rules of the game to suit them.

Democracies are not supposed to have an exclusive political class. That only happens when we, the people, hand over certain privileges to a set of individuals in the hope that they will be honest. Much before our independence, we sold our privileges, our rights to a set of people who led our freedom movement. We decided with finality that Mahatma Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru etc were the best people to decide how we lived in a free country. Ever since that day, our rights lie with them and their progeny. They have used these rights (or more accurately, the surrender of rights) to widen the gap between the “political class” and the rest of the people.

No, we have to decide if it is time we got our rights back. We have to decide if it is necessary to bridge the gap between the ruler and the ruled. We have to decide if we need an exclusive “political class”.

How this country behaves in the next 3-4 months will tell us about that decision.

These are the times that try men’s souls: Thoman Paine

I used to wonder: what kind of lives did people from my grandfather’s generation lead ? 

Imagine this: You are under colonial rule with minimal individual freedoms. There is pressure from some angles to show patriotic fervour. But, you still have to look after a family. Which direction do you go ? Do you heed the freedom-fighter’s call and follow Gandhiji into jail ? Do you say “damn the freedom movement, I have a family to look after” ? Do you take the middle path with its precarious balances ?

I used to wonder what went on in the heads of those young people then.

I am wondering about it now. I am wondering what path folks from my generation will follow. How many on each path. What sacrifices will we have to make ? What will be the cost of those sacrifices ?

This is time to look into our souls and wonder if there is a freedom-fighter in there somewhere.

TimesNow is calling this callousness:

“If it had not been (Major) Sandeep’s house, not even a dog would have glanced that way.”

This was how Kerala chief minister V S Achuthanandan responded on Monday to the family of NSG Major Sandeep Unnikrishnan slain in the Mumbai terror attack during commando operations, igniting a controversy after smarting under the snub from the angry father of the officer when he went to Bangalore to offer his condolences. 

 

I was not taken aback by the CM’s insensitivity towards a grieving family - politicians are famous for that. I was not very impressed by the logic that the slain Major’s father produced for his anguish ["He (Sandeep's father) says that the Kerala chief minister did not come whereas the Karnataka chief minister came in the morning itself...and that Kerala has ignored him. He got all worked up]

What I am shocked at is the pride that this shows. The CM’s indignance is on the lines of “how could an ordinary citizen refuse to allow me, the great CM, into his home !” 

It is almost as if we humble citizens are duty-bound to welcome all politicians into our homes whenever they feel the need to visit us. 

If the slain soldeir’s father does not want somebody in his house, he does not want that person. Period. If that somebody happens to be the CM - or the PM - so be it.

Part 1 here

Read the two headlines:

INDIA AND PAKISTAN MOBILIZING TROOPS ALONG THE BORDER

More troops on LoC, no air/rail links to Pakistan

The first one is dated Dec 15, 2001. The second is almost exactly 7 years later. 

The first one was in the aftermath of the attacks on the Indian Parliament. The second one comes in the wake of the attacks on South Mumbai.

The situation in 2001 petered out in a few months. We were back to our merry ways..

How long will this situation last..?

We are a country of over a billion people. We are a country where the government spends billions of ruppees on National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS). We are a country where, days before a government official visits a city/town/village, crores are spent in the beutification of that place just for that visit.

And yet, we talk of limited resources when it comes to intelligence gathering and co-ordination.

Amazing….we never talk of limited resources when it comes to providing security cover for our politicians. We never hear of limited resources when it comes to renovations to the bungalows that our sahibs occupy. We never hear of limited resources when it is time to splurge tax-payers’ money on cricketers, sportsmen etc.

How come now we talk about it ?

Will not be …for a long time.

For those of us who have been following this on TV/Twitter, the images will stay. Now that this is over, I am trying to vent the frustration and the anguish.

Prem Panicker has been doing an amazing job on Twitter…he was on since yesterday afternoon. He was on throughout the night. You can subscribe to his twitter verse here.

Here is a mail that I sent out to a friend just now…copying it here:

It is indeed frustrating just thinking what is going to happen over the next few days/weeks. It is something that happened right after the attack on the Parliament. 

The politicians told us it was Pakistan…they had “strong” evidence…they mobilized troops (at huge expenses, not to mention inconvenience) to the borders as if they were going to launch an attack on Pakistan. Everybody other than the really naive ones knew this was an empty threat…there is no way these two countries can go to war what with the nuclear weapons stacked on both sides. I believe all the mobilization drama was to get votes. Nothing concrete was actually done to fix those who actually perpetrated the attack on Parliament. Nothing…..All our attention was easily diverted with the sabre-rattling and the testerone burst against Pakistan.

It is easy for the politicians to send troops to the borders and to threaten Pakistan. It takes far more effort to actually set up intelligence, safety infrastructure etc. They are, as always, taking the easy route.

I wish there was something to make sure we pin them down this time…indeed this war is more against our politicians than against those terrorists. The NSG can save us from the terrorists…they can do nothing to protect us against those ruling us now.

P.S: Watching the funeral processions of Hemant Karkare and Major Unnikrishnan, I am unable to hold tears back. the anchor on NDTV is asking her reporter if she was able to speak to Major Unnikrishnan’s family. Pray why ? Why can’t we leave them alone with their grief for one day ? Are we so pathetic as a country that we have to watch the family grieve in public ? Haven’t we inflicted enough on them already ?

I do not think it will be over unless we actually do something to make sure we get the guys who planned this, who paid for this and who are celebrating this now. We are a country of hard-working, honest people. We do not deserve this. We do not deserve these politicians, we do not deserve to have ourselves killed because some moron wants to win votes.

Watching an interesting debate on Times Now. Bob Ayers who, we are told, is a counter-terrorism expert from London tells us that blaming Pakistan for this is not going to take us anywhere. He goes on to point out that just because the terrorists came from Pakistan, it does not mean that the state of Pakistan blessed this act. He demonstrated this by saying that 9/11 was perpertrated by people from Saudi Arabia which does not necessarily mean that Saudi Arabian government sponsored that act.

Good point. Only, if the Saudis had insisted that the terrorists were not from Saudi (or attempted to shield them from the US) , I am not sure the US would have still seen them as an ally in their “war on terror”. Pakistan, on the other hand, has been doing this since partition.

The next time someone from Pakistan says that the state of Pakistan does not sponsor terrorism, let us ask them to hand over Dawood. If they cannot, we should ask them to stick their commisserations up their own….!

If you were to chart out the terrorist activities in India over the past couple of years, you would see that if the government had built roads covering the area where these blasts have taken place, the country’s infrastructure problem would have been solved ! The terrorists’ coverage has been that comprehensive.

Airports, railway stations, buses, taxis, temples, mosques…they have covered everything. If you wanted to commit suicide, you need not go to the pain of buying sleeping pills or a rope etc. All you need to do is to wait…terrorists will definitely get you.

I am sitting here wondering when, and not if, my turn will come to end up as a statistic in the casualities of a terrorist attack.

Mumbai will, once again, be subject to commentary on the “indomitable spirit”…Finally, folks are getting sick of this commentary:

Respiro, ergo sum

This is war

Enough said….It is a sad day..however it is not unusual, sadly.